The method of successive calculation developed by Professor Steen Lichtenberg at DTU is widely used throughout Denmark and Northern Europe. Technically the method is based on the modelling of subtasks using gamma distributions. These distributions belong to the broader class of phase type distributions that can be analyzed efficiently using matrix algebra. Using these techniques one can obtain more detailed information from models of the Lichtenberg type. Especially it is possible to calculate the whole distribution and thus all quantiles in the distribution of the time to complete a project. The project will exploit these possibilities and thus provide more powerful algorithms and simultaneously enhance the modelling power of the method.
Recent work by Mogens Bladt and Bo Friis Nielsen has paved the way for another potential breakthrough in the use of Lichtenberg’s method. While the current use always focues on the duration of one single task at a time the results can be used for the analysis of the duration of concurrent sub tasks or projects simultaneously. The second and main part of the project will focus on developing the necessary theory and methods. It is expected that methods will be available to practitioners by the end of the research project.