The proposed research project will investigate the formation, inherent assumptions and accuracy of traffic models and cost-benefit analyses used in a Scandinavian context, and their role and impact in planning and decision-making with regard to major transport infrastructure projects.
The project carries out an empirical study of existing forecasts in order to reveal ignorance in the present model and scenario approaches in Denmark and Scandinavia, and how this systematically biases forecasts. The study will result in recommendations on model methodology. Following this, model use is analyzed and discussed in an organizational context. The second part of the project develop methods that can be used to quantify the uncertainty of a given policy support model. We address methods with regards to project costs, traffic forecasts and socio-economic analyses as well as issues concerning correlation between effects.
The project contributes significantly to improving the quality of the decision support tools within the transport sector, leading to better use of the investments with regard to socio-economy, as well as to a higher public acceptance of the taken decisions. This will have a major impact on the Danish practice and policy making. Since the research is novel, it will most likely also influence the international state-of-the-art and research.